America has long enjoyed an unrivaled global hegemony, through which it has relished in it’s ‘Exorbitant Privilege’ granted to it by the fact that the USD is the global reserve currency. This time of America's global hegemony has been dubbed the ‘American Century’, which began in the early-to-mid-1940’s, when it helped to set the global rules of trade, finance, and diplomacy after World War II. Unfortunately, there is reason to assert that America’s global hegemony faces the prospect of coming to its end sooner rather than later.

To the un-(or mis)-informed, that may seem like a drastic claim to assert, but I am quite confident in that assertion and I’m accompanied by several notable individuals, such as Ray Dalio and Jeffrey Sachs. It is well understood that while the United States remains the world’s military giant and an economic powerhouse, America no longer dominates geopolitics, or the world economy.

Just like the ebb & flow of all changing world orders, the decline of America’s relative power, and the prospect of the end of the American Century has increased gradually over the past several decades. Among many factors, this relative decline is due to misguided American exceptionalism, largely rooted in it’s ‘Exorbitant Privilege’, but the nail in the coffin may prove to be the chaos caused by Trump’s presidency.

There are many words one could use to describe Donald Trump, but if there’s one word that appropriately depicts his Administration's approach to domestic & foreign policy it must be withdrawal.

Withdrawal: the act of withdrawing. To go or move back, away, or aside; retire; retreat.

From a slew of withdrawals out of international agreements, such as the Paris Agreement, the WHO, NATO, & the Open Skies Treaty, to the dismantling of the JCPOA, to the abandonment of democratic norms, scientific reasoning, to the ‘bunker boy’ departure in the face of domestic violence, and the calamitous response to the COVID-19 pandemic, it seems Donald Trump's favored approach to leadership is to withdraw; to retreat; to run and hide. In just four short years the Trump administration’s affinity for withdrawing has done more damage to America's international influence than any president in recent history.

During this time, competing global powers have embraced every opportunity to fill the gaps in global cooperation created by the nationalist/populist approach of the Trump Administration. While the US pursued a strategy to “Make America Great Again”, largely based on dangerous and wholly-misguided American exceptionalism, many countries (notably China) have stepped up to take over where the US left off in its leadership role in multilateral frameworks, institutions, and alliances around the World. The damage to the US’s international influence - its soft-power - caused by Trump’s incoherent, xenophobic, and populist approach to foreign policy cannot be understated.

Luckily, the damage caused by the Trump Administration is not entirely irreparable. The incoming Biden Administration maintains the ability to rewrite Trump’s wrongdoings by shifting America’s domestic & foreign policy approach away from racism, isolationism, trade wars, military might, & warmaking to multilateralism, technological dynamism and global cooperation. In doing so, the Biden Administration stands a fighting chance to heal our democratic norms, salvage our international influence, and reclaim our reputation as a global leader.

On the domestic policy front, the Biden Administration is faced with a plethora of herculean tasks to restore civil order, as Trump's chaotic tenure has frayed our democratic system & norms in such a way that the American people are more divided than ever before. However, from the standpoint of foreign policy & global cooperation, the greatest opportunity to restore American influence is in the area of climate policy.

By adopting the Paris Agreement in 2015, representatives of 196 countries recognized the need to substantially reduce the risks and impacts of climate change by agreeing to take measures to keep the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C (3.6 °F) above pre-industrial levels; and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F).

The Obama Administration (with Joe Biden serving as VP) was instrumental in garnering collective action in the lead-up & aftermath of the Paris Agreement, and by doing so, the Obama administration supplanted itself and the US as a champion and global leader in the new direction of the global economy.

While Trump has done everything in his power to retreat from this position of global leadership over the past four years, President-elect Biden is right to position climate action front & center of his policy agenda. The announcements of his intention to reenter the Paris Agreement on day one, his ambitious Clean Energy Plan, and his appointment of John Kerry as Special Envoy on Climate are all highly laudable, and will make up much lost ground in terms of international influence. However, to regain the leadership position in this arena, President-elect Biden must do even more.

The reason for this call for more action is largely based on Chinese President Xi Jinping's recent announcement that China aims to be carbon neutral before 2060. This incredibly ambitious announcement has sent positive shock waves through the climate-policy world and has everyone asking “Is China serious?”, and if so, “Is this realistically feasible!?”. By all measures, this announcement does seem to be serious, and feasible, as global leaders have learned that Xi is not one to mince words. Already a global leader in technological innovation, and an unrivaled economic juggernaut, China has stated its intention to be the world leader in the post-fossil-fuel global economy as well.

From a sustainability perspective, Xi’s announcement could not be more well-received, as climate change is one of the biggest existential threats humanity faces, and combating it is by no means a zero-sum game. However, from the perspective of global strategic importance in the era of the Sino-American conflict, America should take notice of China’s rise as a global climate leader, especially as it establishes a carbon neutrality plan ahead of the U.S.

To monitor the changing landscape of global climate leadership, there are three key dates to be aware of:

  1. January 5th, 2021: The fate of Biden’s Clean Energy Plan largely rests in his administration's ability to seize control of the Senate, which will be determined in early January with the outcome of the Georgia state Senate runoff. Without a Senate majority, the Biden Administration will surely be limited in its ability to enact many aspects of it’s Clean Energy Plan, thus limiting its ability to reestablish itself as a global climate leader.

  2. March 2021: While the exact dates are not yet known, the details of China's carbon neutral strategy are expected to be released in it’s 14th Five-Year Plan in March 2021. Ahead of that date, interested parties need to look no further than Xie Zhenhua to decode the many aspects of the wildly ambitious plan. Xie is said to have submitted the 2060 recommendations to Xi Jinping based on exhaustive research his institute at Tsinghua University has done in coordination with several government-linked think tanks. Xie, a former environmental bureaucrat and veteran diplomat, is no stranger to climate negotiations, and his relationship with US Special Envoy John Kerry will be a crucial development in the global climate-policy space.

  3. November 1st - 12th, 2021: Next year's COP26 U.N. Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, Scotland (UK), is vitally important for nations to work out the details of the Paris Agreement. Of key importance for COP26 are developments made in relation to Article 6, Article 12, and Article 14 of the Paris Agreement.

Trump’s affinity for withdrawing from multilateral frameworks, institutions, and alliances has sped-up the changing world order, and while the United States remains the world’s military giant and an economic powerhouse, America no longer dominates geopolitics, or the world economy. Misguided American exceptionalism and an isolationist policy approach have sowed the seeds for the end of the American Century.

The incoming Biden Administration now has the tough task of righting the wrongs of Trump’s chaotic tenure. The greatest opportunity to do so is in the area of climate policy. By reestablishing America as a global climate leader, the Biden Administration sets the stage for reorienting America’s policy approach away from racism, isolationism, trade wars, military might, & warmaking to multilateralism, technological dynamism and global cooperation. Through this concerted effort, the Biden Administration can heal our democratic norms, salvage our international influence, and reclaim our reputation as a global leader.